The swift collapse of Syria’s regime brings a humiliating end to Russia’s and Iran’s sway and opens the door for greater Turkish influence. But the Islamist movement that seized power has yet to show its full intentions.
Dec 8, 2024
The swift collapse of Syria’s regime brings a humiliating end to Russia’s and Iran’s sway and opens the door for greater Turkish influence. But the Islamist movement that seized power has yet to show its full intentions.
Dec 8, 2024
  • Syria
    The Conflict in Syria and the Failure of International Law to Protect People Globally
    On the occasion of the International Day of the Victims of Enforced Disappearances, David Scheffer, International Francqui Professor (Spring 2022) at KU Leuven, reviews Jeremy Sarkin’s latest book ‘The Conflict in Syria and the Failure of International Law to Protect People Globally: Mass Atrocities, Enforced Disappearances and Arbitrary Detentions‘ (Routledge). There is a persistent sense of failure in world affairs today. The aspirations of modernity—to make progress in the well-being of both humankind and Planet Earth—are under constant attack and point towards regression rather than progression.  Climate change threatens to change everything in the decades ahead, and not for the better. The availability of clean energy sources, sufficient food and fresh water supplies, and livable habitats has become so problematic that governments and international institutions responsible for the public welfare are not offering much hope. At any moment, another viral outbreak as disruptive if not more catastrophic than COVID-19 can upend any illusions about economic recovery and prosperity across the globe. Add to these existential crises the endless challenge of highly destructive wars (Ukraine), mass atrocities, and natural calamities (often tied to climate change) and caring for the millions of victims who, as a result, are thrust upon the international community or whose very existence is unknown, and the future looks bleak. One can hope for scientific breakthroughs, political enlightenment, and economic booms to reverse this dire course of events, but honestly addressing the causes of our global predicament is essential work in the meantime. That is exactly what Jeremy Julian Sarkin does in his new book entitled, The Conflict in Syria and the Failure of International Law to Protect People Globally: Mass Atrocities, Enforced Disappearances and Arbitrary Detentions (Routledge, 2022). Sarkin has written a manifesto condemning the current state of international law and the failure of the post-World War II and post-Cold War systems of governance to stem the tide of atrocities generating multitudes of victims for whom tangible assistance—to enable them to survive physically or to be identified and rescued from oblivion—is pathetically scant. He zeroes in on two categories of crimes—enforced disappearances and arbitrary detentions—and one situation—the Syrian conflict since 2011—where these crimes have been dominant and barely addressed. Sarkin, who is a professor at NOVA University of Lisbon in Portugal and a Research Fellow in the Department of Criminology at the University of the Free State Bloemfontein, South Africa, is a prolific author and highly regarded scholar among his peers. He served for six years on the United Nations Working Group on Enforced or Involuntary Disappearances and is a New York and South African lawyer. This book clearly reflects his frustration, building during at least the last two decades, about, in his view, the distorted origins and unenforceable tenets of the international legal order in the face of atrocity crimes (genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity) and in how quite literally to pay any meaningful attention to the victims of these crimes, who number in the tens of millions. Sarkin argues for a victim-centric legal framework and a victim-centric purpose underlying U.N. reactions to atrocities and calamities imperiling the lives of civilians. Since the beginning of the modern era of tribunal-building in the early 1990’s, there has been a very sharp focus on investigating and achieving accountability for the atrocity crimes for a relatively small number of major perpetrators, either acting in the field or as political or military leaders strategising and executing plans for atrocity crimes. This is an exercise much sought by victims who seek justice against such individuals for the horrendous crimes committed against largely civilian populations. Whenever I met with victims as the U.S. Ambassador at Large for War Crimes Issues (1997-2001) or as the U.N. Secretary-General’s Special Expert on U.N. Assistance to the Khmer Rouge Trials (2012-2018), they had one consistent demand: bring the perpetrators to justice. The victims also needed much real-time assistance, but they wanted to see justice done in a courtroom somewhere. Thus during the last three decades international, hybrid, and domestic courts  have been designed to meet this fundamental demand for justice against the perpetrators of atrocity crimes. The outcry from the Ukrainian victim population (in the tens of millions) about the Russian aggression against Ukraine since 2014 and since 24 February 2022 seeks investigation and prosecution of perpetrators operating in the field and in command centers in Russia by international tribunals, foreign national courts exercising universal jurisdiction, and Ukrainian courts. So legal accountability and the building of new or access to existing courts remains a priority of the victims. But in Sarkin’s view, accountability for the commission of atrocity crimes should not distract from the priorities of the victims, how to minimise the violence and calamities that give rise to tens of millions of victims, and how to aid them in the aftermath of crimes. “[W]hile justice is important, there should be greater assistance to individual victims.” (229) Sarkin compares the focus on accountability to major shortcomings in meeting the full corpus of victim needs, including the needs of disappeared victims and those arbitrarily detained. Much of this centers, Sarkin argues, on the failure of outdated and Western-centric international law to focus properly on the rights of victims and the United Nations’ failure to provide protection for survivor populations. Sarkin finds weaknesses in international human rights law (IHRL), international humanitarian law (IHL), and international criminal law: “International law, in general, is weakened—especially when it comes to dealing with conflict and human rights abuses—by issues of state consent, by a system of states ratifying treaties, by having hard and soft law rules that are often not complied with or enforced as well as many others. Also, IHL deals with civilians as a whole and does not deal with a variety of different groups of people, such as those who are the most vulnerable, as IHRL does. This is not to argue that IHRL always does that very well.  In fact, there are lots of gaps and problems. Even more problematically there are very few enforcement options, and, if those mechanisms do take up such cases, they are very few and far between.  There are a lot of issues that IHL does not cover or does not deal with sufficiently, such as women’s issues, for example….” (35) Further, the United Nations, in Sarkin’s view, “remains very weak on providing human rights protection. Where violations occur, the UN prides itself on investigating matters and making recommendations. However, most UN-sanctioned efforts of fact-finding, reporting, recommending and reproaching states where massive violations are occurring—under the auspices of various mandate holders, missions, and ad hoc mechanisms and Special Procedures—have seen noncompliance by states, including the Syrian regime….Ensuring Syria’s compliance and commitment to its international human rights obligations through soft law has achieved little to no success.” (45) One of the major soft law initiatives has been the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) principle enshrined in the non-binding World Summit Outcome Document of the U.N. General Assembly on 24 October 2005 (G.A. Res. 60/1, pars. 138-139, U.N. Doc. A/RES/60/1 (Oct. 24, 2005). The heavily-negotiated text calls on states to protect their own populations from the atrocity crimes of genocide, crimes against humanity (including ethnic cleansing), and war crimes. It calls upon the international community, through the United Nations, to act to protect populations from atrocity crimes, including through collective action with Security Council approval under Chapter VII of the U.N. Charter if peaceful means prove inadequate and the national authorities fail to protect their own people from atrocity crimes. Sarkin condemns the rare application of the full force of R2P during more than 16 years of near-total Security Council gridlock, massive atrocities since 2005, and the principle’s narrow relevance only in the face of atrocity crimes, while it remains irrelevant in the event of aggression, massive human rights violations, and natural calamities or emergencies where the lives of countless innocent civilians are at risk. In short, “international law and the UN have not been sufficiently focused or able to provide protection to people in peril around the world.” (143) Sarkin uses the Syrian conflict, with its enormous range and magnitude of atrocity crimes and human rights violations, particularly enforced disappearances and arbitrary detentions, as his template for analysis of systemic flaws in the international system. He published his book prior to the Russian/Ukraine war of 2022, but one can apply his analysis with equal relevance to the failure of R2P to be activated to authorise the military intervention that would have been required to confront the Russian military invasion to prevent the atrocity crimes that have dominated the aggressive action and inflicted horrendous injury, death, and destruction on the Ukrainian people and their towns and cities. The obvious reason—the certainty of a Russian veto, perhaps joined by China—exemplifies the extreme weakness of R2P as a guiding principle in world affairs. Sarkin proposes the creation of a “new mechanism to conduct searches for disappeared and detained people in Syria and find information for their families.” (208) The mechanism could be established by the United Nations, a regional process, or by states, (211) and financed by states voluntarily with a trust fund. (213) He further describes the proposed new mechanism as having a humanitarian mandate but also a multi-faceted mandate that includes truth and accountability, with perhaps some overlap with other processes, (214) and “a process to collect and centrally collate all of the information from all organisations, the government and other sources.” (216) Bearing in mind his criticism of R2P, Sarkin argues, “New methods need to be found to achieve interventions, maybe outside the umbrella of the UN.” (223) One method within the United Nations would be a standing intervention force of full-time U.N. employees. (224) He argues for restructuring the United Nations by eliminating the General Assembly and replacing it with a bicameral system of a legislative chamber and a chamber to create international law. More resources should be provided to U.N. human rights processes “so that they are able to act to stop the human rights problems that exist around the world. Treaty bodies and special procedures need to be far better resourced and made more independent.” (226) These are ambitious proposals, most of which would confront political firestorms by powerful nations and a stubborn U.N. bureaucracy. But Sarkin puts his case on the table forthrightly and with significant evidence and his views are worthy of serious consideration in both the policy and academic worlds.
  • Syria
    Bringing Justice Home: Dispatches from the ISIS ‘Beatles’ Trial
    Terrorists fail when we choose light over darkness—when peaceful justice prevails over anger and fear.
  • Global Governance
    CFR Term Member Spotlight Series: Hagar Hajjar Chemali
    Play
    Our new series spotlights individuals within the Stephen M. Kellen Term Member Program. Drawing on the enormous amount of talent and expertise within the Council’s Term Member Program, this series features a term member in conversation with a fellow term member discussing their career path, how they got to where they are, the challenges they have faced along the way, and the current work they are doing. We hope this regular series will provide an opportunity for Council term members to better engage and learn from one another, draw upon shared experiences within the group, and connect across geographies. Our second installment in this series features fifth-year term member Hagar Chemali, CEO and founder of Greenwich Media Strategies, in conversation with second-year term member Brit McCandless Farmer, digital producer at 60 Minutes. For those of you who do not know her yet, Hagar's impressive career includes serving twelve years in the U.S. government as director for Syria and Lebanon at the National Security Council, spokesperson for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, and director of communications and spokesperson for the U.S. Mission to the United Nations. Following her time in government, Hagar has gone on to found a communications strategy firm and to be a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Economic Sanctions Initiative. She also hosts, writes, and produces a weekly world news show on YouTube called Oh My World! that covers the top news stories in a fun, accessible, and humorous way.
  • Middle East and North Africa
    Killing of Islamic State Leader Signals Why U.S. Presence in Mideast Will Continue
    The death of Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi is unlikely to pose a major setback for the group, which has already mounted serious attacks in Iraq and Syria this year.
  • Middle East and North Africa
    Biden’s Middle East Strategy Is Ruthless Pragmatism
    There’s a single thread connecting the White House approach to the region, from Syria to Saudi Arabia.
  • Pharmaceuticals and Vaccines
    Biden’s Vaccination Goal Nears, UNSC Votes on Syria Aid Pipeline, and More
    Podcast
    The deadline for President Joe Biden’s goal of vaccinating 70 percent of Americans passes, the UN Security Council votes to maintain aid deliveries between Turkey and Syria, and the world marks UFO Day.
  • Public Health Threats and Pandemics
    A Virtual Global Health Summit, Biden and Moon Meet, and More
    Podcast
    Rome hosts the Global Health Summit online, South Korean President Moon Jae-in visits the White House, and the UN Security Council discusses prospects for Syria as the country holds a presidential election.
  • Middle East and North Africa
    Nobody Knows Why Syria Matters
    Why is the United States still struggling to figure out what to do about the Assad regime?
  • Syria
    The Daughters of Kobani
    Senior Fellow Gayle Tzemach Lemmon tells the extraordinary story of the women who took on the Islamic State and won.
  • Syria
    Kurdish Women and the Fight Against ISIS, With Gayle Tzemach Lemmon
    Podcast
    Gayle Tzemach Lemmon, adjunct senior fellow in CFR’s Women and Foreign Policy program, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the Kurdish women fighting ISIS and her experience on the ground in northeast Syria. Lemmon’s most recent book on women in Syria, The Daughters of Kobani: A Story of Rebellion, Courage, and Justice, hits bookstore shelves today.
  • Syria
    Advancing the Rights of Women and Girls in the Middle East: An Analysis of Current Trends and U.S. Policy
    Gayle Tzemach Lemmon, CFR adjunct senior fellow for Women and Foreign Policy, testified before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on  Middle East, North Africa, and International Terrorism, on advancing the rights of women and girls in the Middle East. A video of the hearing can be accessed here.
  • Syria
    Despite Ceasefire Agreement, Turkey Implicated In More Than Eight Hundred Violations
    Amy Austin Holmes is a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. One year ago, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised to end the Turkish “Peace Spring” intervention in Syria. The decision came after U.S. President Donald J. Trump ordered the U.S. Department of Treasury to impose sanctions on key Turkish government officials and U.S. Vice President Mike Pence negotiated a Ceasefire Agreement, which was meant to end the hostilities. But new data shows that the Turkish military and Turkish-backed militias in the Syrian National Army (SNA) have been implicated in more than eight hundred violent episodes involving civilians or members of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) since the Ceasefire Agreement was signed. This does not include violations that took place in other parts of Turkish-occupied Syria, such as Afrin. Nor does the figure include infighting between the various Turkish-backed factions in the SNA, where looting often erupts into violent clashes. My analysis is based on data collected by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) as well as observations I made on the ground in Syria, where I visited the frontlines of the area occupied by Turkey. The so-called “Peace Spring” intervention began on October 9, 2019, when Turkish soldiers and SNA factions, including the Hamza Division and Sultan Murad Brigade, surged across the border into Syria and occupied a large swath of territory between Tel Abyad in the west and Ras al-Ayn in the east. Five days later, Trump announced the sanctions because the Turkish incursion undermined the fight against the self-proclaimed Islamic State (ISIS), endangered civilians, and posed an “extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States.” But the sanctions were short-lived. On October 23, 2019, just nine days after the sanctions were declared, they were lifted again. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin announced: “As a result of the ceasefire, and at the direction of President Donald J. Trump, Treasury is delisting two Turkish ministries and three of the country’s senior officials.” The White House statement announcing the October 2019 Ceasefire Agreement stated: “The Turkish side expressed its commitment to ensure safety and well-being of residents of all population centers in the safe zone controlled by the Turkish Forces (safe zone) and reiterated that maximum care will be exercised in order not to cause harm to civilians and civilian infrastructure.” The Ceasefire Agreement further states that Turkey and the United States are “committed to safeguard religious and ethnic minorities.” However, during my visit to Syria in September, I personally spoke to Yezidis, Kurds, Armenians, Syriac-Assyrian Christians, and Arabs who were all forcibly displaced because of the intervention and are still unable to return to their homes. Many of them still live in internally displaced persons (IDP) camps. Furthermore, the ACLED data shows that there were one hundred thirty-eight violations in Tel Tamer alone, a Christian region home to thirty-five Assyrian villages. Tel Tamer and the Assyrian villages lie outside the area that Turkey is allowed to occupy. Therefore, any armed clashes that take place there are in clear violation of the Ceasefire Agreement. Tel Tamer, which is the main population center, is now only six miles away from the frontlines of the area occupied by Turkey and SNA factions. Some villages are even closer. The region is protected mainly by Syriac and Assyrian Christians who are organized in the Syriac Military Council and the Khabur Guards, both of which are part of the Syrian Democratic Forces. Prior to the rise of ISIS, some twenty thousand Assyrian Christians lived along the Khabur River. But, in 2015, ISIS overran the area, forcing many to flee. Now a small fraction of that number remain. The Turkish attacks have further contributed to displacement of the region’s indigenous Assyrian community. At least one hundred thirty-seven Christian families were displaced when Turkey invaded during the Peace Spring operation. Even after the October Ceasefire Agreement, Turkish attacks continued—and civilians continued to flee. On October 30, 2019, some four hundred families from the towns of Tal Tamer and Areesheh were forcibly displaced due to fighting in the area. On November 3, 2019, Turkish forces shelled the Tel Tamer region with artillery fire, killing a member of the Free Burma Rangers who was part of their medical team. Then, on November 15, SNA forces attempted to capture Tel Tamer, surrounding it on three sides in an attempt to enter the town and presumably annex it to the already occupied territories. The clashes were accompanied by an exchange of shelling and drone attacks by Turkish forces. As a result of the Turkish offensive, which continued after the Ceasefire Agreement, five members of the Syriac Military Council and Khabur Guards were killed. The total number of civilians and SDF members who have been killed as a result of the Turkish offensive is unknown. Turkish forces or SNA factions have shelled SDF-controlled villages in the countryside of Tel Tamer every single month since the Ceasefire Agreement. In spring 2020, SNA factions repeatedly set fire to crops and agricultural lands in the countryside of Tel Tamer. With a total of more than eight hundred violent episodes since the October 2019 Ceasefire Agreement, this means that Turkey and their SNA militias committed an average of 2.3 cease-fire violations per day. In the Assyrian region of Tel Tamer, Turkey and the Turkish-backed SNA are not allowed to operate at all. And yet even there they committed one hundred and thirty-eight violations according to the ACLED data. The bar graph below breaks down the number of cease-fire violations per month in Tel Tamer, since the Ceasefire Agreement in October 2019. According to a new UN report, “civilians residing in the Afrin and Ras al-Ayn regions […] witnessed an onslaught of violations perpetrated by members of the Syrian National Army as well as shelling and vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices.”  My analysis of the ACLED data provides the first quantitative assessment of the number and type of violations. The vast majority (85.6 percent) of cease-fire violations in Tel Tamer involved armed conflict, including events that are categorized as battles, armed clashes, shelling or artillery fire, drone strikes, and improvised explosive device (IED) attacks. An estimated 11.5 percent of all cease-fire violations included looting or property destruction, while 2.9 percent of incidents included mass displacement of civilians. As explained above, the displacement of four hundred families is counted as a single incident. It is unclear whether the constant attacks on Tel Tamer are intended to expand the territory that Turkey currently occupies, or to further pressure more civilians to flee. The “Peace Spring” operation has already changed the demography of Ras al-Ayn, which has historically had a diverse population, reflected in the fact that the city is known as Rish Ayno in Aramaic and as Serêkaniyê in Kurdish. The assault on Tel Tamer may be an attempt to change the demography of areas even outside Turkish control. Regardless of whether the attacks on Tel Tamer represent territorial expansion, or ethnic cleansing, they are in clear violation of the Ceasefire Agreement negotiated by Pence. The ACLED data also makes clear that the relentless attacks on Tel Tamer—and the Christian inhabitants of the region—are intentional. On October 8, 2020, Trump announced that his executive order, which makes clear that the United States could impose sanctions on Turkey if it violates the Ceasefire Agreement, would be extended for another year. As the new data shows, this has happened hundreds of times. While Turkey has previously been a valuable ally to the United States in the region, many of Turkey’s actions have become destabilizing in Syria. It would be in the interest of the United States to insist that Turkey uphold the Ceasefire Agreement, be held accountable for violations, and establish a mechanism to closely monitor the Turkish-occupied areas of Syria going forward.