China’s Latest Climate Pledges Fall Short of What’s Needed at COP30

Alice C. Hill is the is the David M. Rubenstein senior fellow for energy and the environment at the Council on Foreign Relations. Mia Beams is a research associate for climate and energy at CFR.

In September, Chinese President Xi Jinping unveiled China’s updated nationally determined contribution (NDC) for 2035. Under this climate action plan, which each country is committed to submitting every five years under the 2015 Paris Agreement, China pledged to start cutting total emissions from their highest point by 2035, boost clean energy to about 30 percent of its energy use, expand wind and solar power, increase forest growth, and stay on track for climate neutrality before 2060.

Given that China by far is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gasses, its NDC was panned as weak by various commentators, including environmental groups, government negotiators, and think tanks. While Beijing’s lack of ambition highlights the challenge of generating sufficient action within the UN climate accord process, it also increases the risk that other nations will be similarly unambitious in their commitments.  

Despite this, China’s NDC stood in sharp contrast to a complete withdrawal from the Paris Agreement by the world’s second-largest emitter and biggest historical emitter—the United States. China’s limited commitment coupled with this U.S. exit has caused many to doubt the viability of global climate progress under UN-led forums during a critical Conference of the Parties (COP) meeting in Brazil.

Why is China important to the global climate fight?

China is the world’s largest emitter today, making up about a third of global emissions. The country overtook the United States in greenhouse gas emissions in 2006, and in the past decade, China’s emissions have only continued to climb. Since 2015, 90 percent of the world’s growth in emissions is traceable to China. 

However, Beijing has made some stride in its clean energy transition—in 2024, China’s clean energy growth led to stable emissions output despite a continuing rise in power demand. And China already plays a role in global emissions reduction through its renewable energy export—the country’s 2024 exports are predicted to reduce annual emissions abroad by 1 percent. China also leads clean energy investment, accounting for more than 30 percent of total global investment.  

What is in (and missing) from China’s latest NDCs

Emissions reduction targets. For the first time, China’s latest NDC promises to reduce emissions rather than solely constraining future emission growth, with a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 7–10 percent below peak levels [PDF] by 2035. China also committed to expanding its emission trading scheme, a market-based program that aims to limit pollution through economic incentives. The promised expansion would account for all major emitting industries, including steel, cement, and aluminum, and introduce an absolute emissions cap.

But these commitments fall short from what analysts forecast could keep global warming below the 1.5°C threshold established under the Paris agreement. Research from nonprofit organization the Asia Society found that China would need to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 30 percent from peak emissions by 2035 to still align with the 1.5°C goal established under the Paris Agreement. Moreover, China does not specify when it will “peak” its emissions, leaving the country flexibility to increasing emissions in the next decade.

Renewable energy commitments. China set a target of increasing wind and solar power capacity to 3,600 gigawatts by 2035, which is enough to power about 600 to 900 million U.S. homes. The country also set a target to “raise non-fossil fuel shares of energy consumption to at least 30 percent.” 

No wind down of coal production. However, the NDCs did not outline a plan for China to transition away from its reliance on coal or fossil fuels more broadly. China’s energy sector produces 90 percent of the country’s emissions, mainly from burning coal, and it continues to build coal power plants. In fact, construction of coal-fired power plants reached a “ten-year high” in 2024, and according to a report [PDF] from two climate and energy think tanks, coal project approvals are continuing at a steady rate in 2025. Further, China is also lagging behind earlier targets for coal retirements. The report concludes that China is falling well short of the goal stated in its 2021 five-year plan to retire 30 gigawatts of coal power by 2025.   

Adaptation goals. China announced its ambition to become a “climate-adapted” society, implementing policies to propel domestic adaptation. The country  also committed to increasing its forest stocks up to 24 billion cubic meters, which is a 26 percent increase from its 2030 goal. Finally, China committed to having domestic sales of electric vehicles (EVs) outpace fossil fuel vehicle sales.

What’s China’s NDC strategy?

Beijing could have chosen to under promise and over deliver on its global climate pledges. The Chinese government has historically followed this approach, achieving several of its past climate commitments ahead of schedule. Committing to less restrictive and ambitious NDCs grant China more flexibility in its economic, technological, and industrial development over the next decade.

 In addition, Beijing is facing internal headwinds that could circumscribe climate ambition. For example, in February, China’s central government issued a directive for provinces to develop new pricing mechanisms plans for solar and wind power by the end of 2025. As of October, only about a half of the provinces had finalized the new rules.

The U.S. withdrawal from the UN process provides cover to China, and other nations, for reduced ambition. On his first day in office, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order beginning the process of withdrawing the United States from the Paris Agreement and limited U.S. financial commitments to help other countries adapt to and mitigate climate change. The administration has also rescinded billions for climate-related investments as well as tax incentives for clean energy technologies. 

With the United States out of the UN climate process, the COP30 summit will test the viability of the UN climate regime, and China’s lack of ambition could add to the pressure. How nations tackle the collective NDC gap—the shortfall between commitments provided and commitments required to achieve the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal—will be important to watch during COP30. Although China is unlikely to fully replace the climate leadership gap left by the United States, its actions and climate commitments in the next decade will have distinct impacts on emissions reductions and prospects for global climate ambition.

This work represents the views and opinions solely of the authors. The Council on Foreign Relations is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher, and takes no institutional position on matters of policy.